モデル情報

着順確率モデル (Multiclass LightGBM + XGBoost)

特徴量数
94
LightGBM モデル数
5
XGBoost モデル数
5
1点あたり投資額
¥200
ポートフォリオ設定
券種 EV閾値 的中率閾値 最大点数/レース
馬連 ≥ 2.0 ≥ 20% 1
ワイド ≥ 2.5 ≥ 20% 2
馬単 ≥ 3.0 ≥ 15% 1
三連複 ≥ 1.25 ≥ 20% 2
特徴量一覧 (上位30件)
wakuban_int umaban_int bataiju_int zogen kyori_m surface baba interval_days barei_int weight tosu jockey_runs_6m jockey_win_rate_6m jockey_top3_rate_6m jockey_runs_1y jockey_win_rate_1y jockey_top3_rate_1y trainer_runs_6m trainer_win_rate_6m trainer_top3_rate_6m trainer_runs_1y trainer_win_rate_1y trainer_top3_rate_1y prev1_chakujun prev1_time_sec prev1_kohan_3f_sec prev1_speed_index prev2_chakujun prev2_time_sec prev2_kohan_3f_sec ... 他64件
モデルメタデータ
{ "approach": "Multiclass", "cv_metrics": { "lgbm": { "logloss": 0.6117182494242818, "ndcg3": 0.5857047101772894, "win_acc": 0.4068764988032318 }, "xgb": { "logloss": 0.6117116899418484, "ndcg3": 0.5885339403099282, "win_acc": 0.409490814710867 } }, "feature_names": [ "wakuban_int", "umaban_int", "bataiju_int", "zogen", "kyori_m", "surface", "baba", "interval_days", "barei_int", "weight", "tosu", "jockey_runs_6m", "jockey_win_rate_6m", "jockey_top3_rate_6m", "jockey_runs_1y", "jockey_win_rate_1y", "jockey_top3_rate_1y", "trainer_runs_6m", "trainer_win_rate_6m", "trainer_top3_rate_6m", "trainer_runs_1y", "trainer_win_rate_1y", "trainer_top3_rate_1y", "prev1_chakujun", "prev1_time_sec", "prev1_kohan_3f_sec", "prev1_speed_index", "prev2_chakujun", "prev2_time_sec", "prev2_kohan_3f_sec", "prev2_speed_index", "prev3_chakujun", "prev3_time_sec", "prev3_kohan_3f_sec", "prev3_speed_index", "prev4_chakujun", "prev4_time_sec", "prev4_kohan_3f_sec", "prev4_speed_index", "prev5_chakujun", "prev5_time_sec", "prev5_kohan_3f_sec", "prev5_speed_index", "sire_id", "bms_id", "sire_runs", "sire_win_rate", "sire_top3_rate", "sire_surface_win_rate", "sire_dist_win_rate", "bms_baba_win_rate", "bms_baba_top3_rate", "sire_baba_dist_win_rate", "bms_surface_win_rate", "sire_career_years", "inbreeding_count", "hc_latest_4f", "hc_latest_1f", "hc_avg_4f", "hc_avg_1f", "hc_best_4f", "hc_vs_best", "hc_days_to_race", "hc_intensity", "hc_time_deviation", "wc_latest_4f", "wc_latest_1f", "wc_avg_4f", "wc_avg_1f", "wc_best_4f", "wc_vs_best", "wc_days_to_race", "wc_intensity", "wc_time_deviation", "apt_turf_win_rate", "apt_turf_top3_rate", "apt_dirt_win_rate", "apt_dirt_top3_rate", "apt_dist_win_rate", "apt_dist_top3_rate", "apt_venue_win_rate", "apt_venue_top3_rate", "apt_right_win_rate", "apt_left_win_rate", "apt_heavy_win_rate", "apt_heavy_top3_rate", "apt_heavy_front_win_rate", "apt_heavy_closer_win_rate", "apt_baba_specific_win_rate", "chakujun_trend", "interval_x_chakujun", "horse_recent_avg_finish", "jockey_form_delta", "jockey_top3_form_delta", "trainer_form_delta", "trainer_top3_form_delta", "month_sin", "month_cos", "season", "same_course_flag", "si_stddev_5", "si_best_5", "weight_diff", "jockey_change", "jt_combo_win_rate", "jt_combo_top3_rate", "trainer_venue_win_rate", "baba_inner_advantage", "baba_front_advantage", "baba_nichime", "baba_condition_trend", "baba_bias_x_wakuban", "baba_bias_x_style", "pace_prediction", "sole_leader_flag", "front_density", "closer_ratio", "pace_x_style", "class_level", "class_change", "relative_class_strength", "grade_level", "waku_course_win_rate", "waku_course_top3_rate", "waku_x_tosu", "waku_x_baba", "interval_category", "distance_change", "surface_change", "is_transport", "hc_training_freshness", "wc_training_freshness" ], "lgbm_params": { "bagging_fraction": 0.6772405696642293, "bagging_freq": 7, "device": "gpu", "feature_fraction": 0.572740366118263, "learning_rate": 0.030327246320649655, "metric": "multi_logloss", "min_child_samples": 37, "n_jobs": -1, "num_class": 4, "num_leaves": 52, "objective": "multiclass", "reg_alpha": 0.00046316405949182196, "reg_lambda": 0.09658490749405504, "seed": 42, "verbose": -1 }, "xgb_params": { "colsample_bytree": 0.9481699669653789, "device": "cuda", "eval_metric": "mlogloss", "learning_rate": 0.07818020433552289, "max_depth": 6, "min_child_weight": 18, "num_class": 4, "objective": "multi:softprob", "reg_alpha": 9.505977233525059, "reg_lambda": 0.00012993769816963002, "seed": 42, "subsample": 0.7551859869075083, "tree_method": "hist", "verbosity": 0 } }