モデル情報
着順確率モデル (Multiclass LightGBM + XGBoost)
特徴量数
94
LightGBM モデル数
5
XGBoost モデル数
5
1点あたり投資額
¥200
ポートフォリオ設定
| 券種 | EV閾値 | 的中率閾値 | 最大点数/レース |
|---|---|---|---|
| 馬連 | ≥ 2.0 | ≥ 20% | 1 |
| ワイド | ≥ 2.5 | ≥ 20% | 2 |
| 馬単 | ≥ 3.0 | ≥ 15% | 1 |
| 三連複 | ≥ 1.25 | ≥ 20% | 2 |
特徴量一覧 (上位30件)
wakuban_int
umaban_int
bataiju_int
zogen
kyori_m
surface
baba
interval_days
barei_int
weight
tosu
jockey_runs_6m
jockey_win_rate_6m
jockey_top3_rate_6m
jockey_runs_1y
jockey_win_rate_1y
jockey_top3_rate_1y
trainer_runs_6m
trainer_win_rate_6m
trainer_top3_rate_6m
trainer_runs_1y
trainer_win_rate_1y
trainer_top3_rate_1y
prev1_chakujun
prev1_time_sec
prev1_kohan_3f_sec
prev1_speed_index
prev2_chakujun
prev2_time_sec
prev2_kohan_3f_sec
... 他64件
モデルメタデータ
{
"approach": "Multiclass",
"cv_metrics": {
"lgbm": {
"logloss": 0.6117182494242818,
"ndcg3": 0.5857047101772894,
"win_acc": 0.4068764988032318
},
"xgb": {
"logloss": 0.6117116899418484,
"ndcg3": 0.5885339403099282,
"win_acc": 0.409490814710867
}
},
"feature_names": [
"wakuban_int",
"umaban_int",
"bataiju_int",
"zogen",
"kyori_m",
"surface",
"baba",
"interval_days",
"barei_int",
"weight",
"tosu",
"jockey_runs_6m",
"jockey_win_rate_6m",
"jockey_top3_rate_6m",
"jockey_runs_1y",
"jockey_win_rate_1y",
"jockey_top3_rate_1y",
"trainer_runs_6m",
"trainer_win_rate_6m",
"trainer_top3_rate_6m",
"trainer_runs_1y",
"trainer_win_rate_1y",
"trainer_top3_rate_1y",
"prev1_chakujun",
"prev1_time_sec",
"prev1_kohan_3f_sec",
"prev1_speed_index",
"prev2_chakujun",
"prev2_time_sec",
"prev2_kohan_3f_sec",
"prev2_speed_index",
"prev3_chakujun",
"prev3_time_sec",
"prev3_kohan_3f_sec",
"prev3_speed_index",
"prev4_chakujun",
"prev4_time_sec",
"prev4_kohan_3f_sec",
"prev4_speed_index",
"prev5_chakujun",
"prev5_time_sec",
"prev5_kohan_3f_sec",
"prev5_speed_index",
"sire_id",
"bms_id",
"sire_runs",
"sire_win_rate",
"sire_top3_rate",
"sire_surface_win_rate",
"sire_dist_win_rate",
"bms_baba_win_rate",
"bms_baba_top3_rate",
"sire_baba_dist_win_rate",
"bms_surface_win_rate",
"sire_career_years",
"inbreeding_count",
"hc_latest_4f",
"hc_latest_1f",
"hc_avg_4f",
"hc_avg_1f",
"hc_best_4f",
"hc_vs_best",
"hc_days_to_race",
"hc_intensity",
"hc_time_deviation",
"wc_latest_4f",
"wc_latest_1f",
"wc_avg_4f",
"wc_avg_1f",
"wc_best_4f",
"wc_vs_best",
"wc_days_to_race",
"wc_intensity",
"wc_time_deviation",
"apt_turf_win_rate",
"apt_turf_top3_rate",
"apt_dirt_win_rate",
"apt_dirt_top3_rate",
"apt_dist_win_rate",
"apt_dist_top3_rate",
"apt_venue_win_rate",
"apt_venue_top3_rate",
"apt_right_win_rate",
"apt_left_win_rate",
"apt_heavy_win_rate",
"apt_heavy_top3_rate",
"apt_heavy_front_win_rate",
"apt_heavy_closer_win_rate",
"apt_baba_specific_win_rate",
"chakujun_trend",
"interval_x_chakujun",
"horse_recent_avg_finish",
"jockey_form_delta",
"jockey_top3_form_delta",
"trainer_form_delta",
"trainer_top3_form_delta",
"month_sin",
"month_cos",
"season",
"same_course_flag",
"si_stddev_5",
"si_best_5",
"weight_diff",
"jockey_change",
"jt_combo_win_rate",
"jt_combo_top3_rate",
"trainer_venue_win_rate",
"baba_inner_advantage",
"baba_front_advantage",
"baba_nichime",
"baba_condition_trend",
"baba_bias_x_wakuban",
"baba_bias_x_style",
"pace_prediction",
"sole_leader_flag",
"front_density",
"closer_ratio",
"pace_x_style",
"class_level",
"class_change",
"relative_class_strength",
"grade_level",
"waku_course_win_rate",
"waku_course_top3_rate",
"waku_x_tosu",
"waku_x_baba",
"interval_category",
"distance_change",
"surface_change",
"is_transport",
"hc_training_freshness",
"wc_training_freshness"
],
"lgbm_params": {
"bagging_fraction": 0.6772405696642293,
"bagging_freq": 7,
"device": "gpu",
"feature_fraction": 0.572740366118263,
"learning_rate": 0.030327246320649655,
"metric": "multi_logloss",
"min_child_samples": 37,
"n_jobs": -1,
"num_class": 4,
"num_leaves": 52,
"objective": "multiclass",
"reg_alpha": 0.00046316405949182196,
"reg_lambda": 0.09658490749405504,
"seed": 42,
"verbose": -1
},
"xgb_params": {
"colsample_bytree": 0.9481699669653789,
"device": "cuda",
"eval_metric": "mlogloss",
"learning_rate": 0.07818020433552289,
"max_depth": 6,
"min_child_weight": 18,
"num_class": 4,
"objective": "multi:softprob",
"reg_alpha": 9.505977233525059,
"reg_lambda": 0.00012993769816963002,
"seed": 42,
"subsample": 0.7551859869075083,
"tree_method": "hist",
"verbosity": 0
}
}